Asteroid Apophis, named after the ancient Egyptian god of chaos, was discovered in 2004 by astronomers at the National Observatory in Arizona. Initial observations and trajectory calculations, made with certain assumptions, showed a relatively high probability of collision with Earth – one chance in 300. This caused serious concern in the scientific community and prompted further research. More recent observations have refined Apophis’ orbit and lowered the risk estimate.
Image generated by Kandinsky
A more detailed study of Apophis occurred on January 9, 2013, when it passed relatively close to Earth, at a distance of about 15 million kilometers. Convergence gave scientists the opportunity to conduct a detailed radar scan of the asteroid, thanks to which it was possible to clarify its size and shape. It turned out that the diameter of Apophis is about 370 meters, which is more than the original estimate of 300 meters.
The research has identified three periods of closest approach of Apophis to our planet: 2029, 2036 and 2068. The closest approach is expected on April 13, 2029, when the asteroid will pass at a distance of only 31,300 km from the Earth’s surface – closer than some geostationary satellites. Apophis will be visible to the naked eye, allowing for additional research into its composition and structure. Although a direct collision with Earth is not expected in 2029, there is a small risk of damage to satellites in geostationary orbit. In 2036, the probability of a collision is extremely low, at about 1 in 250,000. However, the prediction for 2068 remains less certain, as the asteroid’s trajectory may be altered by Earth’s gravitational forces during previous approaches.
